cFIREsim

*cFIREsim is not actual financial advice. Use this site as an educational application.*

News

Sept. 9, 2022 - New Feature - Updated Data

As of 09/09/2022 I have updated the latest Shiller Data into cFIREsim

-Lauren

Oct. 26, 2021 - New Feature - I'll be @ the EconoMe Conference in Cincinnati, Nov. 13-14.

I'll be at the EconoMe Conference from November 13-14. I'll actually arrive on the 12th. If you're interested in meeting up, follow me on Twitter (cFIREsim) and drop me a message!

-Lauren

July 23, 2021 - Bug - SS is now in today's dollars

I don't what source that I received this information from, but I was under the impression that estimated Social Security benefits were not adjusted for inflation until the benefits were received. Therefore, cFIREsim was not inflating the value until whatever date you chose to receive Social Security. According to this document: "Estimated benefits are adjusted for economy-wide average wage growth from about the time of Statement issuance to about the time of retirement." This is now fixed, and should be inflation-adjusted throughout. Special thanks to athinkergem for pointing this out to me.

-Lauren

April 15, 2021 - New Feature - Live Zoom Demo - 8PM EST - 4/15/2021

I am giving a live demo to the Chicago Area Bogleheads group, April 15th at 8pm EST. The zoom link is Here

-Lauren

April 2, 2021 - New Feature - Added "Adjust Spending Floor/Ceiling" checkbox to Adjustments

In modeling my own retirement scenarios, I often use a variable spending plan with a spending floor/ceiling value to make sure that I'm not modeling a scenario where I have less spending than I'm comfortable with, or more spending than is necessary.

This always posed a problem with our mortgage. In cFIREsim's Adjustments, I added a checkbox to alleviate this problem. If you look at this simulation you'll see a Spending Floor of 40k and a Spending Ceiling of 55k, along with a 20k mortgage. That "spending" floor/ceiling is a baseline spending, and the mortgage is now allowed to go above the floor/ceiling so that in future years we can accurately model the floor/ceiling with our base spending.

-Lauren

March 19, 2021 - New Feature - Added Tutorials Section

On the top navbar, you can now access the beginnings of a tutorials and use-case section. This will provide more detailed descriptions and use-cases to help you use cFIREsim.

-Lauren

March 18, 2021 - Bug - Bugfix - Failures on last year weren't being counted

Credit to pointing this out goes to nigel_ht on the bogleheads forums. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5889184#p5889333 With the simple change from "<" to "<=", the "failures" are now being counted if the portfolio fails in the final year.

-Lauren

Feb. 17, 2021 - New Feature - In-browser tabs instead of an output pop-up.

I've converted the UI to show simulation graphs in an in-browser tab, instead of a single pop-up window. This will allow for multiple simulations up in the same browser window, and hopefully easier navigation.

-Lauren

Feb. 2, 2021 - New Feature - Added Gold Growth Data from Kitco.com

Before now, I didn't have a good data source for gold prices. I updated the code to show gold prices from 1871 to present from http://www.kitco.com

-Lauren

Jan. 23, 2021 - New Feature - Added new Data Methods

Added Single Simulation, Constant Growth Rate, and Specific Range of Years to the Data Method dropdown.

-Lauren

Jan. 15, 2021 - New Feature - Added "Inflation Type" to main form.

There are now 2 types of inflation that the main simulation can be set to via the "Inflation Type" option. "CPI - Historical" which uses inflation data of the past (up or down) to calculate the value, or "Flat Rate" which allows you to set a specific value.

-Lauren

Jan. 12, 2021 - New Feature - Allow deletion of adjustments

I have added a button to remove an adjustment panel from the form.

-Lauren

Dec. 29, 2020 - New Feature - Added threshold amount to Investigate Yearly Spending

Users can now input what success rate they want to optimize to when running the investigation for maximum initial yearly spending.

-Lauren

Dec. 22, 2020 - New Feature - Added Guyton-Klinger Spending Method

This method is a hybrid of adjusting your spending by inflation and the 4% rule, with additional rules regarding bull/bear markets. It was developed by a pair of economists (Guyton and Klinger). http://www.schulmerichandassoc.homestead.com/using_decision_rules_to_create_retirement_withdrawal_profiles.pdf. Please read their paper on the method before using this option. It properly defines the rules of the withdrawals. Note: The Guyton-Klinger "Initial Withdrawal Rate" is based on your Yearly Spending Input and the amount of your portfolio at the time of retirement, not a static %.

-Lauren

Dec. 22, 2020 - New Feature - CSV Export

On the output page, there is now a CSV export option that shows every segment of every cycle in the simulation.

-Lauren

Dec. 21, 2020 - New Feature - Investigation Options

Added a new panel to begin adding "Investigation" options to simulations. The first of these investigations will take your portfolio and other inputs, and figure out what the maximum amount of initial yearly spending would result in a 100% success rate. I'll soon be adding a % success threshold so that you can enter your own %, as well as other investigation options.

-Lauren

Dec. 14, 2020 - New Feature - Add HTTPS/SSL

I added the proper SSL certificate to the site, and have forced all traffic to be secure HTTPS.

-Lauren

Dec. 8, 2020 - feature - Freeze Adjustment Value

Someone noted to me that it is common to have people with government pensions who have. the pension value "frozen" UNTIL they start withdrawing it, then it is inflated every year for CPI. I added a "Freeze Value" checkbox to any adjustment, allowing you to pause inflation until the first withdrawal year. Thanks Sam!

-Lauren

Dec. 8, 2020 - Bug - Near failed not failing

There was an issue with the calculation of the "end" portfolio, where if a portfolio hit 0 because of adjustments, it never actually was marked as "failed". This made it seem like there were fewer failures in sims with adjustments (if they were close to failure anyways).

-Lauren