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cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:00 pm
by bo_knows
6-29-2013: Fixed a bug relating to "Constant Market Growth" reported by user "arebelspy".
6-29-2013: Fixed a bug relating to Pre-retirement contributions reported by user "arebelspy".
6-29-2013: Added "Portfolio Median" to output page. Colorized the Average, Median, Low, and High portfolios for visibility.
7-1-2013: Fixed issues with Investigate Portfolio and Investigate Spending Level. cFIREsim now used the binary search algorithm to find the min/max values of these investigations within $1.
7-1-2013: Changed the output of the Investigation's to hide the graph/results and only show the results of the Investigation itself, to avoid confusion.
7-1-2013: Updated the graphing library to jqplot, which supports Axis labels. Added axis labels to all graphs.
7-2-2013: Updated Investigate Allocation to provide a graph instead of a table.
7-2-2013: Updated Output page to show all inputs (except individual/recurring portfolio adjustments, which might take up too much space)
7-2-2013: Added specific area for Social Security inputs (they act just like any other recurring inflation adjusted adjustment)
7-2-2013: Added the option to make One-time adjustments either Inflation Adjusted or not. Also, changed the wording in that section from "Lump Sum" to "One-time"
7-2-2013: Fixed bug that displayed incorrect "Starting Portfolio" in debug mode, even though it was simulating with the correct values.
7-2-2013: Added preliminary "Advanced Input" - Need to work on explanation, or a new interface.
7-3-2013: Fixed bug with "Advanced Input" where Adblocker was preventing it from opening.
7-3-2013: Changed usage notation in "Advanced Input" to be a little more intuitive (I think).
7-3-2013: Added same CSS styling to Output as was already present in the Input form.
7-3-2013: Fixed bug with "Advanced Input" that was zero'ing out the Spending every 10 years.
7-3-2013: Added Gold/Cash/Bonds asset allocation using historical data. Though, the output needs to be styled correctly for the debug table.
7-8-2013: Fixed a bug with "Constant Annual Market Growth" and the calculation for inflation that didn't mathematically make sense. Test Case: 0 spending, $1M portfolio, 0 fees, 3% inflation, 3% Constant Annual Market Growth. Should yield a consistent $1M inflation adjusted portfolio.
7-8-2013: Updated output page to include a "Test String", which is a string containing all of the variables used for a particular simulation. This long string can be used on the input to replay a simulation. This is a temporary solution for testing purposes, and will eventually be replaced by the ability to login and save a simulation.
7-12-2013: Added input validation to check for numeric values only.
7-12-2013: Changed output graph to show all years from 1871-2013, rather than jamming every point onto a 30yr graph. This shows how your simulation did through specific time periods.
7-12-2013: Released the link to a couple public forums. Oh god.
7-14-2013: Fixed issue with Retirement year. Inputs set for the future were not ignoring spending inputs like they should.
7-14-2013: Fixed issue with Advanced Spending Input not functioning.
7-15-2013: Added "Single Cycle Year" to the Investigation menu. This option runs a single simulation cycle from a user-inputted Start Year.
7-15-2013: Fixed issue with "Investigate Portfolio" which was affecting calculations for 100% success rate simulations.
7-15-2013: Changed the behavior of the add-on fields resulting from choices in the "Investigate" menu. Now, "Percent Success Threshold" and "Start Year" will only pop up if the appropriate investigation was selected.
7-26-2013: Major Revamp of UI - Changed a lot of menus and options so that the user could not choose redundant options. Made it easier (I hope) to enter multiple portfolio adjustments. Got rid of the "Advanced Inputs" in favor of the current streamlined menus.
7-26-2013: Added ability to do Monte Carlo simulation under Investigate section.
7-26-2013: Added the ability to do constant % increases to any portfolio adjustment (pensions, spending, etc)
7-26-2013: Added the ability to run a simulation starting from a specific year in history (Single Cycle - Investigate)
7-26-2013: Revamped the test string so that all portfolio adjustments are included.
7-26-2013: Added the ability to put independent Upper and Lower Limits when choosing a Spending of "Percent of Portfolio".
7-26-2013: Updated "Instructions" for each section, though I plan on adding examples with pictures.
7-26-2013: Updated main tutorial page to include pictures and a hypothetical example.
7-27-2013: Fixed a bug with "Investigate Allocation" where it wasn't properly updating the bond %.
7-29-2013: Added ability to change Asset Allocation gradually over an inputted time period (commonly known as "glide path")
7-29-2013: Fixed a bug involving "Investigate Spending" with a small portfolio and added savings inputs. It was incorrectly determining the maximum spending level because the algorithm was using the Portfolio amount as a starting point.
8-4-2013: Added ability to use historical data from specific time range.
8-4-2013: Deleted "beta" and "alpha" pages in favor of a "main" page and a "development" page.
8-8-2013: Added "Guyton-Klinger" method of Spending Adjustment
8-8-2013: Added "Variable Spending" method of Spending Adjustment - created by ERD50
8-8-2013: Added "Hebelers' Autopilot" method of Spending Adjustment
8-8-2013: Added a Spending graph on the output of applicable simulations
8-8-2013: Added a "Average Nominal Total Withdrawals" to the output page for comparison of simulations
8-8-2013: Fixed a bug giving errors for long simulation periods
8-20-2013: Added '"Retire Again & Again" withdrawal method
8-20-2013: Added ability to download simulation data to CSV file (under Debug section)
8-20-2013: Added "End Year" to Social Security inputs.
8-20-2013: Added "Cycle Start Year" to the information on the graph when you hover over a data series.
8-20-2013: Added ability to weight the 2 different types of strategies used in Hebeler's Autpilot Method.
8-20-2013: Expanded the information in the "Inputs" section at the top of the Output page. Allows for showing more of the different variables used in the current simulation.

Version 1.11 - 9/24/2013
- Fixed bug with "Investigate Allocation" that resulted in timeout. Changed granularity of that investigation to 5% increments to make it faster.
- Disabled "Investigate Spending" for when "Variable Spending Method" is chosen. There is a long-term bug that needs to be worked out for this.
- Fixed bug that was preventing the "Change Allocation Gradually" menu from opening.
- Fixed various logic errors in "Guyton-Klinger" and "Retire Again & Again" method of spending.

Version 1.12 - 9/26/2013
- Fixed bug causing the overall simulation inflation method to be erroneously changed when changing a Pension's inflation method. This was causing division by 0 errors.

Version 1.2 - 10/23/2013
- Added "Login" feature. This allows registered users of the cFIREsim forums to do the following:
* Save a set of inputs for a simulation, with a name
* Load a Saved Simulation by name
* Delete Saved Simulations
* Edit the name of Saved Simulations

- Added a feature for registered or non-registered users to load a Saved Simulation by a unique ID number.
- Changed VPW method of spending to "Custom VPW" and revamped it using updated work from the bogleheads forums.
- Removed old "Test String" functionality in lieu of new Save Simulation functionality.
- Changed wording of "Debug" section to reflect it's only current use: "CSV Output".

Version 1.21 - 10/24/2013
- Fixed an issue with the <form> tag for "Load Saved Simulation by ID" that caused certain portfolio adjustments to not load/save correctly
- Temporarily moved location of "Load Saved Simulation by ID"

Version 1.22 - 10/30/2013
- Fixed a bug that if you saved a sim with a Savings/Income that is "Not Inflation Adjusted", it is spitting out a database error. This caused that particular sim to not load correctly.

Version 1.23 - 12/02/2013
- Added a privacy statement to show that there is no intent to share/sell user data captured from the "Save Simulation" capability.
- Added output metrics to the Monte Carlo simulation option, to be in line with the other simulation outputs.
- Added spending graph to Monte Carlo simulation option.

Version 1.24 - 12/13/2013
- Added ability to add "labels" to each Savings/Income or Spending input (such as "401k savings", "IRA Savings", "College Tuition Costs", etc)
- Added ability to load those labels from a saved simulation

Version 1.25 - 1/14/2014
- Changed how bond returns were calculated, due to discussions in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119

Version 1.3 - 5/19/2014

Code: Select all

- Updated Output Statistics Table
   - added Median/St.Dev./Highest/Lowest for "Yearly Withdrawals"
   - added Median/St.Dev./Highest/Lowest for "Total Withdrawals"
   - added "Withdrawal Analysis"
      - Shows Avg/Median/St.Dev./Highest/Lowest/Failures for 4 different subsets of your retirement period
         - First 5 years
         - Beginning Third
         - Middle Third
         - Final Third
   - added "Dip Analysis"
      - Shows how many simulation cycles that your Portfolio/Withdrawals dipped >10%, >20%, >40%, or >60% below the initial value at retirement.
      - If a simulation cycle did show a dip for one of those categories, it shows the max total # of years it dipped during that specific simulation cycle.
   - added Lowest 5 Withdrawal Dips
      - Shows dip amount
      - Shows Cycle Start / Dip Year
   - Updated "Help" section for Output Table with better explanations of the fields
- Added 2 new fields to "Investigate" Section
   - Added "Withdrawal Failure Value"
      - This defines what a "failure" is to cFIREsim, in regards to Withdrawals (spending).  If spending gets below this value, it will be considered a failure.
   - Added "Portfolio Failure Value"
      - This defines what a "failure" is to cFIREsim, in regards to your portfolio value. By default, this value was always $0. If your portfolio ever got to $0, it was considered a failure. Now, this field is customizable.
- Changed "Investigate Fees" to "Investigate Drag (Fees/Market Underperformance/Inflation)" to represent alternative ways to use this feature
   - Increased the range of investigation from 0-3% to 0-10%
- Added the ability to Save/Load "Investigate" options
- Fixed bug in Original VPW withdrawal method, where inflation was not factoring into results
- Changed spending cap in "Investigate Spending Level for ______ % success" to $1,000,000.
- Added a small checkbox next to "Save Simulation as:" field
   - If you save a simulation, you can now check this box to disable the "Save Simulation as:" text field so you can re-run the same simulation without error.
- Updated "Instructions" pages for all sections

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:14 am
by bo_knows
6-12-2014 - Version 2.0
- Major UI overhaul using Twitter's Bootstrap This should make using the site on mobile/tablets much more tolerable.
- Added a better "Saved Simulations" UI that allows for Saving/Renaming/Deleting simulations without reloading the page.
- The "Saved Simulations" now are ordered by name.
- Changed logic for "negative" portfolios. When a portfolio goes below $0, cFIREsim will no longer calculate "market gains" for this negative portfolio. Note: This is a big departure from Firecalc, so your average ending portfolio's will tend to be a bit higher now without these fake negative portfolio amounts skewing the data.
- Updated the Monte Carlo settings to include a separate configurable value for Equities and Bonds (vs just 1 number for Mean Market Gain). Monte Carlo is still not correctly working with a few Spending Plans, however.
- Implemented a universal Spending Ceiling, to accompany the universal Spending Floor that already existed.
- Updated the Investigate Success rate with various market drag(Fees/Market Underperformance/Inflation) option to include a wider range of % drag.

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:19 pm
by bo_knows
6-16-2014 - Version 2.0.1
- Partially fixed a bug involving "Rebalance - No" in asset allocations. The current version seems to show a very small rounding error, resulting in $1.00 discrepancy over 30 years. Nothing major, but I'm still looking into why that is happening (because it doesn't happen for "Rebalance - Yes" simulations.

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2014 4:24 pm
by bo_knows
6-18-2014 - Version 2.0.2
- Fixed a bug where "Single Simulation Cycle " actually outputs 3 years total, rather than just a single year.
- Fixed a bug in the output stats table where the "Cycle Start/Dip Year" always shows 1871 for the start year.

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:50 pm
by bo_knows
6-28-2014 - Version 2.0.5
- Fixed a bug that was preventing users from using Original VPW or Custom VPW.

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:55 pm
by bo_knows
6-30-2014 - Version 2.0.6
- Fixed a bug that caused incorrect success rates for any simulation that had portfolio adjustments (SS, pensions, etc) that were higher than Spending

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 3:49 pm
by bo_knows
7-7-2014 - Version 2.0.7
- fixed a bug that was incorrectly calculating "Average Yearly Withdrawal"
- fixed a bug that wasn't giving you a random Year for the CSV Output (it always did 1956)
- fixed a bug that made the CSV Output (for the Output chart) not visible

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 7:23 pm
by bo_knows
7-10-2014 - Version 2.0.8
- Fixed bug causing major slowness (and sometimes failure) of the investigate options (Investigate Spending/Portfolio/Fees). These should all be running smoothly, and much faster. The Investigate Fees has always taken 15-20 seconds to run, even at it's best.

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:32 am
by bo_knows
7-15-2014 - Version 2.0.9
- Added a table for Investigate Spending and Investigate Portfolio that shows various Safe Withdrawal Rates compared to the portfolio being investigated.

Re: cFIREsim Running Change Log

Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:46 pm
by bo_knows
8-18-2014 - Version 2.0.10
- Disabled investigate spending/portfolio for VPW and Variable Spending options. These spending methods have fundamental issues with these investigation calculations and cannot provide a good answer.